Sunday, March 16, 2008

A Lesson in Pot Odds (tourney)

Pot odds is something all poker players should learn because it helps players make good decisions by using some simple math.

In this scenario, a player 9 with middle pair bets out on the flop. The bet is approximately half the pot and with two players acting after him, it might also be considered a scouting bet. Player 9 wants to see where he's at and if he gets raised, he can make a decision based on pot odds.

Since player 9 has more chips than player 6, he can gamble a little without losing all his chips. After player 6 moves all-in, player 9 is left with a fairly simple decision. Should he fold or should he call? After the all-in, the pot has $1560 in it and his call would be for another $660. If we divide 660 by 1560, we get .423 or 42.3%.

Let's assume player 9 knows he's beat and believes that player 6 has an ace with a good kicker. Player 9 thinks he can beat player 6 with two pair and needs to draw out on him to win. Player 9 can win if a 10 (two outs) or a king (four outs) shows up. He can also win with a backdoor flush or straight, but that is difficult to calculate and the odds of that happening is quite low.

A glance at the odds calculator graphic shows us that player 9 is a 22.8% underdog on the flop. The 22.8% is lower than the 42.3% pot odds he's getting. Therefore, he's not making the correct mathematical call. However, since he would still have a stack even if he loses and because he could get lucky about 1 in 5 times, his call isn't that bad. Additionally, there are no other players and he doesn't need to make any more decisions after his call.

If you have some gamble in you, these are the kinds of situations you should look for.

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