Sunday, April 19, 2009

I Get My Queen on the River (cash)

GOOD BEAT

It was a bad call on the river since I was only getting about 10-to-1. I should have been getting about 20-to-1 to justify the call, but I wanted to see if my read was right.

When someone re-raises pre-flop, he usually has a big pair or AKs. Weak players will re-raise with almost anything especially if they're on the button, but it's nearly fundamental to re-raise with a big pair in any position. I didn't think my opponent was bluffing or playing stupid because he wasn't very active when I looked him up in my hand history.

I was certain my opponent had aces or kings. Queens were unlikely since I had them. The flop was good for me to test my read. Most players will re-raise an early bet if they have a big pair. When he did, I knew I was beat. When a king showed-up on the turn, I figured he had aces. So I checked and hoped to see my miracle card. Lady Luck decided to show me her grace and I got it. If I hadn't gotten lucky, I would have paid my opponent off to see if my read was right. For just another dime, I thought it was worth it to see if I was on the right track.

What is so painful about this hand for my opponent is that I was just a 5% dog (two outs) to win the hand. Even the 53s was favored over me at 12%.

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