Monday, March 31, 2008

Three Way Flop, 3's on the Flop (cash)

GOOD BEAT

This hand is the kind of hand you always dream about. Pre-flop, aces in the hole dominates as the 69% favorite. Even the 95s beats me at 18% since the case ace doesn't help me.

However, the flop changes these percentages drastically. Everything nearly reverses when I hit my trips. I become a 67% favorite and the pocket aces goes down to 8%. The 95s has a decent chance to win at 25%, but since he had a short stack, I would still take down the side pot against the pocket aces.

The big mistake here was when Player 9 overvalued his aces and re-raised on the flop. He should have worried that I might have had a 3 when I raised. However, Player 9 must have decided I had either a flush draw or the J. It was obviously a mistake. He may have thought his aces were good since the flow of the table prior to this hand was quite carefree. There was a lot of gambling and loose play, so that may have altered his viewpoint. At the same time, he may have been one of those players that have difficulty laying down aces. Remember the old saying, pocket aces can win small pots and lose big ones.

Saturday, March 29, 2008

Gutshot Straight (tourney)

Although this player had other outs (the ace), this hand is an example of a made gutshot straight. What made it even more painful is that he only had three outs since the queen of diamonds would have given me a royal flush.

Slow Play Greed (tourney)

Here's a way to slow play yourself, not to death, but to cripple. I was greedy and slow played thinking I wouldn't get a bad beat. But sure enough, I probably did. I didn't even want to give the guy the satisfaction of taking a minimum bet from me.

Thursday, March 27, 2008

I Draw Out on People Too (cash)

I knew Player 5 was a super multi-table player and wondered if I'd been bluffed by him on an earlier hand. I knew he was capable of making big bluffs and wasn't really afraid to lose. That makes for a dangerous combination, but with a pair on the button, I decided I would be aggressive.

Red flags always go off in my mind when I'm re-raised over three times the original raise. It usually means queens or better, or at least AQ or better. I put him on the latter and figured I could race him since he didn't have that big of a stack.

When the ace flopped and both Player 3 and Player 5 checked, I decided to bet. I was surprised to see both of my opponents call time to think about whether they should call. I hoped Player 3 would fold and he did. When Player 5 started to think, I suspected he had a big pair and was just trying to figure out if I was bluffing. He made the right read, but it didn't matter because Lady Luck will still screw you over if she wills it. For some reason, I just had a feeling I was going to win this hand, even though I had just two outs.

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Flopping Quads (cash)

How do you play four-of-a-kind when you flop it? I was just hoping someone had a J, but maybe my bet was too much on the river?

Greed (cash)

One of the things you need to be profitable in poker are players who are weaker than you. If you can find a table where weak players are playing, than you should be able to make money off them. In this series of examples, I found a player who I knew I could take advantage of. I was able to win a large pot and double my starting stake. However, my greed took over and I decided I would stick around to try to make more money. What can happen is that you may no longer get lucky and begin getting unlucky. You can also begin to make bad calls or allow players to get lucky off your greed. I should have gotten up and been happy with my session, but instead, my winning session became a losing one.











Saturday, March 22, 2008

It's OK to Fold Top Pair (tourney)

Here are two examples that exemplify what can happen with top pair. One shows a good fold by me, and the other shows why I should have folded.

On the later hand, I knew I had one player beat, and if the big stack had folded, I would have had some chips left and survived. But for some reason, it seems like the big stack tends to be luckier than other players. Nevertheless, I guess I lost my concentration and just made a terrible error. The lesson is to always stay alert, especially during tourneys since one mistake can send you packing.



All-in with AQ (tourney)


If you add the blinds and antes then divide your chip stack by their total, you have calculated your "M". Your M will tell you how many rounds you can survive without playing a hand before the blinds deplete your stack. I've read that when your M is less than 10, it can be argued that you can move-in with nearly any good hand.

I had that in mind when I pushed on this hand. Additionally, Player 4's limp confused me and made me believe his hand was weak. Furthermore, I thought moving-in would prevent players from calling if I had just called the initial raise. Interestingly, all the players I wanted out ended-up calling.

Initially, I thought I may have been a favorite since two players had the same hand and the third a weaker hand than mine. But I was a 24% dog. The odd thing was that I didn't feel comfortable with my AQ and generally do not favor going all-in with it.


Friday, March 21, 2008

Two Outer (tourney)

At first, I thought Player 7 did not protect his hand properly. By raising the minimum amount, I thought he was being greedy and did not raise enough to protect his hand. However, Player 8 had just a 5% chance to catch a 6 so his call of the minimum raise was technically a bad one. But remember that the 200 chip raise is the same amount as the big blind and relative to their stacks, it wasn't that much. The lesson is simple, don't be greedy and protect your hand a little more aggressively than this.

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

When the Flop is Good for Multiple Players (cash)

Sometimes more than one player will flop a great hand. Although Player 9 flopped the straight, Player 5 also flopped top pair with a flush draw. At this point, Player 5 is just a 40% dog and the turn brings him down just to 30%. It can be argued that both players made the correct play. Notice how Player 9 is unable to protect his hand because he lacks chips.

Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Lady Luck and the Case Queen

Talk about lucky. I knew I was behind in this hand because someone check-raised me and the player after him called his raise. When you have that situation and you don't have a monster hand, you'd better fold. However, I had been playing for such a long time without making a hand, I called for the hell of it. It's what I term, the "bored to death call". Stay away from bored calls because they need a lot of luck to win. Even though I had to chop the pot, I gave thanks to Lady Luck and quit right away.

Monday, March 17, 2008

A Set of Kings and Ugly Beat-y (cash)

When lady luck wants to punish you, even a set of kings won't help you.

Sunday, March 16, 2008

A Lesson in Pot Odds (tourney)

Pot odds is something all poker players should learn because it helps players make good decisions by using some simple math.

In this scenario, a player 9 with middle pair bets out on the flop. The bet is approximately half the pot and with two players acting after him, it might also be considered a scouting bet. Player 9 wants to see where he's at and if he gets raised, he can make a decision based on pot odds.

Since player 9 has more chips than player 6, he can gamble a little without losing all his chips. After player 6 moves all-in, player 9 is left with a fairly simple decision. Should he fold or should he call? After the all-in, the pot has $1560 in it and his call would be for another $660. If we divide 660 by 1560, we get .423 or 42.3%.

Let's assume player 9 knows he's beat and believes that player 6 has an ace with a good kicker. Player 9 thinks he can beat player 6 with two pair and needs to draw out on him to win. Player 9 can win if a 10 (two outs) or a king (four outs) shows up. He can also win with a backdoor flush or straight, but that is difficult to calculate and the odds of that happening is quite low.

A glance at the odds calculator graphic shows us that player 9 is a 22.8% underdog on the flop. The 22.8% is lower than the 42.3% pot odds he's getting. Therefore, he's not making the correct mathematical call. However, since he would still have a stack even if he loses and because he could get lucky about 1 in 5 times, his call isn't that bad. Additionally, there are no other players and he doesn't need to make any more decisions after his call.

If you have some gamble in you, these are the kinds of situations you should look for.

The Stop and Go (tourney)

The stop and go play is a move made pre-flop when you're short-stacked. You commit to move-in on the flop regardless of what shows up. The idea is to confuse your opponent and make him believe you have a hand when you may or may not have hit the flop.

If the stop and go were made here, player 3 would have bet about half his stack. Then, on the flop, he would move all-in. In this scenario, player 7 would have had the best hand on the flop, but it would have been a very difficult call to make, especially considering what was on the board. Perhaps most importantly, moving all-in tends to signal that the player is willing to put his tournament life on the line which adds to the story that the player hit one of his cards.

Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Why Folding Marginal Hands is a Good Thing

Even though I had the button and like to gamble sometimes with suited semi-connectors sometimes, it's not a good long term tactic and more importantly, can keep you out of very dangerous situations.

Had I stayed in the hand, I'm not sure if I could have gotten away from it. A straight is pretty good even with two opponents and no flush or boat possibilities. Even worse, a three way tie would lose money for all three players because of the rake.

Did I Have a Better Hand? (cash)

After flopping a set, I decided to play slow by checking. But then I was re-raised on the turn and wondered if I was beat. I decided to call and hope the river would bring me a boat, but it didn't. I almost felt that calling on the river was worth it to see if I was right in thinking he had the nut straight. But could he have had a smaller set or two pair?

Monday, March 10, 2008

Slowplaying Yourself to Death

Sometimes you flop such a big hand, you want others to catch-up so you can make some money off them. In this case, one player let someone not just catch-up but over take him.

Saturday, March 8, 2008

Memorable Hands From a Tourney

Winning this hand probably led me to having a chance to win. You need a large number of chips to survive multi-table tournaments and this was the hand that gave me those chips. Usually, your opponents need to have a hand to create large pots like this and I was lucky that all three other players had something to give them a reason to call.



In this next hand, I witnessed how someone can have a large stack without being necessarily a good player. Here, a player moves all-in and is dominated, but gets lucky on the river. So even if you see a player with a big stack, don't be intimidated. It doesn't always mean they're all that skilled.

Did I Have the Best Hand? (cash)

I think I made the correct laydown, but I can't help but wonder. When someone re-raises your raise, they generally have a pretty good hand. But why did he check the turn? Wouldn't he be afraid I might catch a flush? Was he bluffing? Did he have a flush draw as well? Maybe he had two hearts and one of them was a 7?

Friday, March 7, 2008

You Need Chips to Bluff

If you're going to bluff someone off a pot, you need to have enough chips to push your opponent off her hand. Otherwise, your raise or bet won't be enough to scare them. Here, one player waits too long and doesn't have enough chips to bluff her opponent. Her minimum raise on the river isn't enough to scare her opponent who doesn't even have a pair. She probably should have raised him on the turn or made a larger raise on the river for the bluff to work.

I Get Lucky Too (tourney)

With the blinds getting big, I decided I'd move-in and hope my opponent didn't flop any of the cards on the board. He didn't, but he had pocket kings! But with a little luck, anything is possible.



As the tourney continued, I didn't want to race off my chips. I made the correct play, but had I played, I would have taken down a nice pot.



Finally, my luck ran out. I nearly cracked these aces, but when you give bad beats, you have to be ready to take bad beats.

Wednesday, March 5, 2008

Tilting Bluff (cash)

I'll admit, I was on tilt when I made this bluff. At the same time, I knew these two players were pretty loose. The chances of them having a hand were low and my table image was a tight one. I also felt like I had some outs because I didn't think either of them had an ace. If they did, I had four outs for a straight. Finally, moving all-in on the turn solidified my story.

Suited Connectors Against Big Cards

You need luck in poker especially against big hands. Suited connectors work well against big hands, but you still need to get lucky.

Notice how certain elements take place in this hand to make it all happen for the 35s. First, the AA did not have enough chips to protect his hand on the flop. Second, the AKs made his flush on the river to make him think he had the best hand. Finally, the 35s had position throughout the hand which prevented the other players from gaining any information on what he could possibly be calling with.

Monday, March 3, 2008

Odd Hand

When I saw this live, I didn't quite get what happened. I wondered how someone could bet out on the turn with two players who spent money to stay in on the flop. But when you watch the hand again, you can see what the player with A5 might have been thinking. He may have guessed that the players had high overcards or maybe even a draw. He may have also hoped that his aggressive betting would lead his opponents to think he had a big pocket pair since he raised from the big blind pre-flop. That said, I still think it's an odd hand and almost seems like he knew that he'd trip-up on the river.

I Got Bluffed

My opponent must have watched my tight play and decided he'd take down the pot with a bluff. His bet on the turn made it look like he was protecting his hand from a flush. Had he not shown me his hand, I would never have known I was bluffed.

Sunday, March 2, 2008

Bad Luck Rush

Sometimes a rush works the opposite way. Rather than winning several pots in a short period of time, you lose several pots in a short period of time. I hope I'm never this unlucky, but when you play a loose game, expect these kinds of beats.



Saturday, March 1, 2008

Three Way All-in (tourney)


Having the best current hand doesn't necessarily mean you have the best chance of winning since there are more cards to be dealt. I was surprised to see that I was actually an underdog in this hand. My chances of winning were lowered since one of my opponents held a card I needed for a straight as well as an ace that would give me a set.

How a Rush Works

Dan's Poker Dictionary defines a rush as "a player who wins a large number of pots in a short period of time." Here's one I witnessed that is quite remarkable. The following hands were all consecutive and is a great example of a rush. My friend left the table right after the last hand because "you gotta know when to walk away."

He started with $3.00 and in just five hands, he was at $14.05 for a nice profit of $11.05.









Beware This Pattern (cash)

I wrote about this pattern already, but I need to remind myself why it's so dangerous. Anytime someone check-calls, check-calls, then bets the river when they are first to act it usually means they've got a big hand. If you have top pair, it's probably not enough.